Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
